Do we underestimate the ability of people to change?
In his 1995 book The Road Ahead, Bill Gates wrote:
“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next 10. Don’t let yourself be lulled into inaction.”
Much of our estimations now of rapid change are driven by our expectations of digital and technological innovation. Looking back over my own experience of major change, there does appear to be a 10 year cycle for major change to take hold. For example:
Complex new technology takes time to emerge and become main stream.
We accept that it takes time for technology solutions to develop, evolve and become established, but we often seem to assume that one of the most resilient and adaptable elements of our societies and workplaces should not be given this time. Yes – I’m talking about People.
People – our most adaptable asset
Have you ever noticed how adaptable people are in times of crisis or war? People step into roles they have never done before, new people enter the workforce, and productivity surges. When people have a clear reason to change they can be enormously adaptable. Industry productivity in USA increased 96% during WW2. This was with many people doing jobs they had never done before.
So what if I said you had 10 years to transform some or all of the same people who work in your organisation now into the people with the skills and culture you will need in your workforce in 10 years time? Many of you would be very sceptical. And sadly, many leaders would not know where to start, so they don’t try.
But when AI, machine learning and digital technology is still nowhere near reproducing the complexity of the human body and brain, why do we see technology as the wonder and solution for change, and people as a problem - change averse, defined by their current job, set in their capabilities, and often needing to be replaced when new skills are required – even when those skills are in scarce supply.
How often do we consider people as having fixed occupations and fixed capabilities and skills, and give them no real chance to learn and change? We think we need to get rid of people more often than we consider how to transform their capability and contribution. We are more likely to think we need to “move people on” to make way for change – rather than that they really are our most important asset to make change happen.
Do you treat your people like your most important asset?
In a 2017 article by Deloitte titled, The connected employee: The utility’s most important asset, the likely extent of change and its impact on people in the utility sector is described. The picture is not unlike that in other sectors, although the degree of change in this essential service sector poses more potential threats to society if not managed well.
The article talks about:
The prospect of such industry change is creating a level of uncertainty and anxiety that is challenging the mature organisational and regulatory structures, legacy solutions, and conservative mind-sets in these highly regulated, risk averse essential service industries.
Fear and mistrust vs engagement and preparing for the future
Leaders, particularly those from professions that are more comfortable in dealing with things rather than people, can think it is best to avoid upsetting people more by involving staff in conversations about the uncertainty ahead. Unfortunately, this unintentionally feeds mistrust, fear, industrial unrest, and people holding on to the past.
Change gets scarier for humans when it goes underground and becomes caught up in rumours and the grapevine. When people feel left out and on their own to deal with change they try to protect what they know and what is important to them. Change becomes less scary when it is out in the open and people have time and support to understand, contribute and adapt.
In my work I have found that in any area where change will have significant impact on people, their skills, and their jobs – it is best to engage people at all levels as early as possible and provide lots of opportunity to listen and talk about the future, the challenges ahead, and how people can position themselves to be part of the change. This unleashes enormous underutilised energy, contribution and resilience for the challenge ahead.
I have facilitated conversations with groups at all levels in organisations facing major change and have found top leaders are often amazed at the insight and strategic ideas that come from those who have been looking on from below - and that includes blue collar field workers.
Staff feel more in control of their lives and safer to make contributions when given the opportunity to understand the challenges and what they can do about them. People have enormous untapped potential to adapt and change, but this requires leadership, engagement and early action if you need to build a new kind of workforce with new skills.
A business and people strategy to set the direction for action
To capitalise on this potential, leaders need to have the conversations early and engage staff in the development of a people-focused strategy for the organisation that includes the future story for their workforce. A longer term business strategy and plan supported by a people and workforce plan that gives people the time and support to change and be part of the future, either inside or outside the organisation, is an important step in treating people as your most important asset.
So in conclusion I suggest a little modification of Bill Gates’ quote for those facing major change:
We always overestimate the amount of change people need to make in the next two years and underestimate the change they can make in the next 10 with the right leadership and engagement. Don’t let yourself be lulled into inaction and waste your best assets - people.
Contact me if you would like help with engaging people and formulating your business and people strategy.
Susan Kehoe
Consultant | Coach | Change Leader
Work with Susan
Susan helps design and implement people-centred strategy, transformation and performance improvement. Her work involves challenging mind-sets, shifting culture, and engaging people to improve service delivery and performance. Her approach taps into the enormous unused potential of people in organisations to deliver exponentially better results with the right leadership, engagement and strategy.
“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next 10. Don’t let yourself be lulled into inaction.”
Much of our estimations now of rapid change are driven by our expectations of digital and technological innovation. Looking back over my own experience of major change, there does appear to be a 10 year cycle for major change to take hold. For example:
- In 2000 I led a project in Melbourne which included the design and implementation of the largest wireless workplace solution in the world for 1100 people. But wireless solutions in workplaces took at least another 10 years to become more mainstream.
- In 2007 Blackberries were the desirable business mobile device and the first Apple iPhone was only just available. Now smart phones are all pervasive at home and at work.
- In 2006 when I started working in an electricity distributor, changes in distributed generation, micro grids, developments in energy storage, and the penetration of renewable generation were barely on the radar. Twelve years later these new solutions are driving industry disruption, uncertainty and restructuring, but even now, many of the winning technologies are still unclear.
Complex new technology takes time to emerge and become main stream.
We accept that it takes time for technology solutions to develop, evolve and become established, but we often seem to assume that one of the most resilient and adaptable elements of our societies and workplaces should not be given this time. Yes – I’m talking about People.
People – our most adaptable asset
Have you ever noticed how adaptable people are in times of crisis or war? People step into roles they have never done before, new people enter the workforce, and productivity surges. When people have a clear reason to change they can be enormously adaptable. Industry productivity in USA increased 96% during WW2. This was with many people doing jobs they had never done before.
So what if I said you had 10 years to transform some or all of the same people who work in your organisation now into the people with the skills and culture you will need in your workforce in 10 years time? Many of you would be very sceptical. And sadly, many leaders would not know where to start, so they don’t try.
But when AI, machine learning and digital technology is still nowhere near reproducing the complexity of the human body and brain, why do we see technology as the wonder and solution for change, and people as a problem - change averse, defined by their current job, set in their capabilities, and often needing to be replaced when new skills are required – even when those skills are in scarce supply.
How often do we consider people as having fixed occupations and fixed capabilities and skills, and give them no real chance to learn and change? We think we need to get rid of people more often than we consider how to transform their capability and contribution. We are more likely to think we need to “move people on” to make way for change – rather than that they really are our most important asset to make change happen.
Do you treat your people like your most important asset?
In a 2017 article by Deloitte titled, The connected employee: The utility’s most important asset, the likely extent of change and its impact on people in the utility sector is described. The picture is not unlike that in other sectors, although the degree of change in this essential service sector poses more potential threats to society if not managed well.
The article talks about:
- 30% of jobs in the sector are at risk of automation or major skill change
- There is little difference between the technologies that people in blue collar and white collar jobs are using now at home, but we act as if blue collar workers will not adapt to new technologies at work
- Workplace cultures need to shift from old-style siloed functions to cross-functional teams with more flexible ways of working
- There is an expected major shortfall in STEM qualified people in the sector as digitisation and new technology creates new jobs, and yet the focus in the article is on where people with these skills will come from, rather than on how to transform existing people and cultures to meet the need.
The prospect of such industry change is creating a level of uncertainty and anxiety that is challenging the mature organisational and regulatory structures, legacy solutions, and conservative mind-sets in these highly regulated, risk averse essential service industries.
Fear and mistrust vs engagement and preparing for the future
Leaders, particularly those from professions that are more comfortable in dealing with things rather than people, can think it is best to avoid upsetting people more by involving staff in conversations about the uncertainty ahead. Unfortunately, this unintentionally feeds mistrust, fear, industrial unrest, and people holding on to the past.
Change gets scarier for humans when it goes underground and becomes caught up in rumours and the grapevine. When people feel left out and on their own to deal with change they try to protect what they know and what is important to them. Change becomes less scary when it is out in the open and people have time and support to understand, contribute and adapt.
In my work I have found that in any area where change will have significant impact on people, their skills, and their jobs – it is best to engage people at all levels as early as possible and provide lots of opportunity to listen and talk about the future, the challenges ahead, and how people can position themselves to be part of the change. This unleashes enormous underutilised energy, contribution and resilience for the challenge ahead.
I have facilitated conversations with groups at all levels in organisations facing major change and have found top leaders are often amazed at the insight and strategic ideas that come from those who have been looking on from below - and that includes blue collar field workers.
Staff feel more in control of their lives and safer to make contributions when given the opportunity to understand the challenges and what they can do about them. People have enormous untapped potential to adapt and change, but this requires leadership, engagement and early action if you need to build a new kind of workforce with new skills.
A business and people strategy to set the direction for action
To capitalise on this potential, leaders need to have the conversations early and engage staff in the development of a people-focused strategy for the organisation that includes the future story for their workforce. A longer term business strategy and plan supported by a people and workforce plan that gives people the time and support to change and be part of the future, either inside or outside the organisation, is an important step in treating people as your most important asset.
So in conclusion I suggest a little modification of Bill Gates’ quote for those facing major change:
We always overestimate the amount of change people need to make in the next two years and underestimate the change they can make in the next 10 with the right leadership and engagement. Don’t let yourself be lulled into inaction and waste your best assets - people.
Contact me if you would like help with engaging people and formulating your business and people strategy.
Susan Kehoe
Consultant | Coach | Change Leader
Work with Susan
Susan helps design and implement people-centred strategy, transformation and performance improvement. Her work involves challenging mind-sets, shifting culture, and engaging people to improve service delivery and performance. Her approach taps into the enormous unused potential of people in organisations to deliver exponentially better results with the right leadership, engagement and strategy.